Model disclosures

Current model

Version: 2026.9.1

The engine estimates household cash flows and tests retirement scenarios across simulated market, inflation, longevity, healthcare, tax, and spending conditions.

Major assumptions

• Results depend on user-entered balances, income, contributions, spending, retirement dates, and benefit estimates.
• Market paths are simulations, not forecasts. Tail events outside configured assumptions remain possible.
• Tax, Medicare, Social Security, contribution-limit, and RMD approximations can become outdated or differ by household.
• Healthcare and long-term-care costs are estimates and do not replace insurance analysis.
• Home equity is available only when the selected strategy enables it.

Interpreting success probability

A probability describes the share of modeled paths that funded the selected plan through the selected horizon. It is not the probability that a real household will experience a particular outcome.

Ending balance charts

The primary chart shows the middle 80% of simulated ending balances (10th through 90th percentiles), excluding the individual minimum and maximum. New analyses show today's purchasing power, using the inflation experienced in each simulation. Older saved analyses show clearly labeled future dollars until rerun. Balances are measured at each simulated household plan end, which can vary with longevity. Nominal extremes remain in the diagnostic table and are not planning expectations.

Validation status

Independent financial validation is pending. Software regression tests check calculation consistency; they do not validate the financial assumptions.

Review cadence

Revisit the plan after major income, spending, tax, health, family, or market changes, and at least annually.